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Best Bets for Week 5! |
Our FIVE Best Bets for Week 5 are: Arizona -3.5 New England -16 Detroit +3.5 Kansas City +2 N.Y. Giants -3.5 Arizona at St. Louis Line: Arizona -3.5 Total: 41 Arizona is 2 - 2 straight up and 0 - 2 on the road. They're 3 - 0 against the spread overall and 1 - 0 on the road. They've played 2 unders and 2 overs. On the road they've played 1 under and 1 over. They averaged 21 points a game this season, 20 points on the road. They've given up an average of 20 points a game, while giving up 23 points on average on the road. St. Louis is 0 - 4 straight up and 0 - 2 at home. They're 0 - 4 against the spread overall and 0 - 2 at home. They've played 4 unders and 0 overs. Playing at home they've played 2 unders and 0 overs. They've averaged 9.8 points a game this season, 14.5 at home. They've given up an average of 25.8 points this season, while allowing 22 points per game on average at home. Ari Offense Total Rush Pass Defense Total Rush Pass 13 16 12 12 11 10 STL Defense Total Rush Pass Offense Total Rush Pass 24 29 9 29 24 26 Last season, when the Cardinals weren't as good as they are now and the Rams were much better than they are now, Arizona beat them twice. The Cardinals have covered the spread in their last 6 road games. That being said, this is the first time they've been favored over that time. The Rams have covered just once in their last 5 home games. PROGnosis: Arizona -3.5 Cleveland at New England Line: New England -16 Total: 48 Cleveland is 2 - 2 straight up and 0 - 1 on the road. They're 3 - 1 against the spread overall and 1 - 0 on the road. They've played 0 unders and 3 overs. On the road they've played 0 unders and 1 over. They averaged 27.3 points a game this season, 24 points on the road. They've given up an average of 29.5 points a game, while giving up 26 points on average on the road. New England is 4 - 0 straight up and 2 - 0 at home. They're 4 - 0 against the spread overall and 2 - 0 at home. They've played 1 under and 3 overs. Playing at home they've played 0 unders and 2 overs. They've averaged 37 points a game this season, 38 at home. They've given up an average of 12 points this season, while allowing 10.5 points per game on average at home. Cle Offense Total Rush Pass Defense Total Rush Pass 11 15 10 31 30 30 NE Defense Total Rush Pass Offense Total Rush Pass 1 3 4 2 4 5 How can I not go with the hot hand here? The Patriots are simply in another league from just about every team in the NFL. That's what my gut says, but do the numbers back that up? Of course they do! Last week I raved about how unreal Brady's numbers are, but the truth is the whole team is putting up stats that are hard to believe. The Browns have had their moments and they've had a couple of good games on offense, but they've been inconsistent at best and the defense just isn't very good. That I'm taking the Patriots isn't surprising, but making them a Best Bet may be. It's not often that I'd take a team as a Best Bet at this high a spread, but the truth is, sometimes the line can't be set high enough. PROGnosis: New England -16 Detroit at Washington Line: Washington -3.5 Total: 46.5 Detroit is 3 - 1 straight up and 1 - 1 on the road. They're 2 - 1 against the spread overall and 1 - 1 on the road. They've played 1 under and 3 overs. On the road they've played 0 unders and 2 overs. They averaged 28.5 points a game this season, 28.5 points on the road. They've given up an average of 30.3 points a game, while giving up 38.5 points on average on the road. Washington is 2 - 1 straight up and 1 - 1 at home. They're 1 - 1 against the spread overall and 0 - 1 at home. They've played 2 unders and 1 over. Playing at home they've played 1 under and 1 over. They've averaged 17.7 points a game this season, 16.5 at home. They've given up an average of 16.3 points this season, while allowing 18.5 points per game on average at home. Det Offense Total Rush Pass Defense Total Rush Pass 4 31 1 29 17 30 Was Defense Total Rush Pass Offense Total Rush Pass 13 9 13 15 10 21 All I need to know is that the Lions are 0-20 in Washington. That says they have no chance. All I need to know is that the Lions are 0-20 in Washington. That says they're due to win. Aren't stats wonderful? After the game, one of those statements will come true, but looking back that far into history isn't all that helpful to us today. Sure, it's interesting, but ultimately useless. I like the Lions to cover because of 2 different ways this game could go. The Lions could come out and light it up, and there's no way Washington can keep up. On the other side, Washington could come out and play a ball control game, grinding it out against the Lions weak defense. If that's the case, 3 and a half points is huge. PROGnosis: Detroit +3.5 Jacksonville at Kansas City Line: Jacksonville -2 Total: 35.5 Jacksonville is 2 - 1 straight up and 1 - 0 on the road. They're 1 - 2 against the spread overall and 1 - 0 on the road. They've played 2 unders and 1 over. On the road they've played 0 unders and 1 over. They averaged 15.3 points a game this season, 23 points on the road. They've given up an average of 11.3 points a game, while giving up 14 points on average on the road. Kansas City is 2 - 2 straight up and 1 - 0 at home. They're 3 - 1 against the spread overall and 1 - 0 at home. They've played 3 unders and 1 over. Playing at home they've played 1 under and 0 overs. They've averaged 14 points a game this season, 13 at home. They've given up an average of 16.5 points this season, while allowing 10 points per game on average at home. Jac Offense Total Rush Pass Defense Total Rush Pass 21 13 22 4 26 3 KC Defense Total Rush Pass Offense Total Rush Pass 3 19 5 27 30 19 I love Kansas City here as the home dog. They're ranked 30th in rushing, but don't be fooled into thinking they have no running game. They've played 4 of the best run defenses in the NFL this season, including the Vikings who nobody has run against for the past couple of seasons. I believe the Chiefs will have a really big rushing day, and being at home with a good defense will give them the victory. PROGnosis: Kansas City +2 N.Y. Jets at N.Y. Giants Line: N.Y. Giants -3.5 Total: 41 N.Y. Jets are 1 - 3 straight up and 0 - 2 on the road. They're 1 - 2 against the spread overall and 1 - 1 on the road. They've played 2 unders and 2 overs. On the road they've played 2 unders and 0 overs. They averaged 18 points a game this season, 13.5 points on the road. They've given up an average of 25.8 points a game, while giving up 18.5 points on average on the road. N.Y. Giants are 2 - 2 straight up and 1 - 1 at home. They're 2 - 2 against the spread overall and 1 - 1 at home. They've played 1 under and 3 overs. Playing at home they've played 1 under and 1 over. They've averaged 22 points a game this season, 14.5 at home. They've given up an average of 25 points this season, while allowing 19 points per game on average at home. NYJ Offense Total Rush Pass Defense Total Rush Pass 28 28 30 28 24 18 NYG Defense Total Rush Pass Offense Total Rush Pass 16 14 14 19 19 15 The Giants are playing better ball right now. This line seems too small. Are the Jets getting too much credit for playing in their home stadium? The Giant defense is playing at a very high level right now, and the offense is getting better and better. PROGnosis: N.Y. Giants -3.5 |