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The Myth of the Home Field Advantage
Revised 2007
Copyright 2007, ProgsPicks.com

We've all heard it. Even people who know nothing about gambling, who have never bet on an NFL game and couldn't care less have heard it. "Add 3 points to the home team for home field advantage." People say it with an air of wisdom, but the truth is, they don't have a clue what they're talking about!

Over the years, yes indeed, the home team does enjoy a home field advantage of about 3 points. This is an average, however. Averaging doesn't work well when comparing football teams. (In fact, averaging has hurt more handicappers than it's helped. But that's another article.) Let's say I told you that the average high temperature in Las Vegas was 79 degrees. Would you just assume that the high temperature today is 79 degrees? I sincerely think not. You'd say something like this, "Well, being that its summer time, I'd have to say the temperature is higher than average." You'd be right! It turns out that the hottest month is July with an average temperature of 102. The coolest months are December and January with an average high of 59 degrees. The point is, you'd never say, "In Vegas today, the high temperature will be 79."

So how does this apply to the home field advantage? Simply this: Don't just assume that the home field advantage is 3 for every team. In 2006 the home field advantage was .7, on average, for all teams. However, the range of the individual team's home field advantage was from 9.4 for the Jaguars to -4.9 for 3 different teams. That's right; some teams actually have a home field disadvantage! Somehow, that fact seems to be missed by nearly everyone who talks about this subject.

I was doing some reading a few seasons ago from another handicapper, who wrote an article about home field advantage. In the first coupe of sentences he wrote that the advantage was just an average, and you just can't add 3 points to a team. I thought, "Here's a guy who knows what he's talking about!" With this subject that's rare. However, he then went on to say that, and I'm paraphrasing here, some cold weather teams might have a 4-point advantage in the dead of winter, while in warmer weather it might just be 2 points. As happy as I was to see he understood it was an average that you shouldn't blindly follow, he then misinterpreted how to apply it. I relate this story to show you that even people who should know better, don't, and people who have an idea of what's going on don't understand it very well.

So now you know something that virtually all of the rest of the betting public and most handicappers don't. This can only help you on the road to winning in the NFL. Good luck!

Here is the complete list of home field advantage for the NFL 2006 season. In parentheses is their home field advantage, first for the 2005 season, second the 2004 season, next the 2003 season and lastly the 2002 season.

Some of the highlights of the 2006 season:

About 6 teams a year, on average, show a disadvantage while playing at home. Last season it was 9, with another team at 0.0 This is the most teams I've ever seen with a home field disadvantage. This is not an altogether unexpected result however, as the home teams did terribly last season against the spread. The record for home teams was 118-133 ATS. That's a win rate of only 47%

The Jaguars had the biggest improvement, increasing their home field advantage 8.1 points.

The Vikings had the biggest drop, falling 12.8 points from last season.

The Panthers haven't had a home field advantage over the last 4 seasons, while the Giants have had only 1 season with an advantage in that span.

Jaguars         9.4 (1.3) (1.2) (3.2) (1.9)
Colts             6.9 (-.6) (3.1) (0.8) (-.3)
Texans         5.4 (-.8) (2.4) (4.1) (.4)
Chiefs          4.8 (5.9) (4.5) (9.0) (9.4)
Steelers        3.9 (-1.8) (4.4) (3.6) (-.7)
49ers            3.8 (6.3) (1.4) (13.3) (1.3)
Raiders         3.5 (2.2) (3.3) (2.6) (1.1)
Redskins      2.9 (6.0) (1.4) (-0.7) (1.9)
Seahawks     2.9 (5.7) (1.8) (7.6) (0.1)
Chargers       2.8 (1.9) (4.1) (0.4) (-.3)
Cardinals      2.2 (4.6) (7.4) (9.4) (3.9)
Lions            2.2 (4.3) (-3.3) (6.8) (5.8)
Ravens         2.0 (8.4) (8.3) (5.9) (-.3)
Bills             1.9 (4.9) (1.1) (6.4) (1.1)
Bears            1.5 (7.4) (-1.8) (8.7) (2.5)
Dolphins       0.7 (2.7) (2.7) (-3.6) (10.8)
Eagles            0.5 (4.0) (2.3) (-2.3) (1)
Buccaneers    0.5 (2.0) (5.9) (-0.2) (0)
Browns          0.5 (1.6) (3.4) (1.8) (.6)
Falcons          0.3 (.5) (6.7) (0.4) (2.9)
Jets                0.1 (8.3) (4.3) (2.6) (1.2)
Titans            0.1 (2.0) (-0.2) (4.6) (1.6)
Broncos        0.0 (6.1) (1.3) (3.1) (1.6)
Rams            -1.8 (1.9) (8.3) (9.8) (9.1)
Bengals         -2.4 (-1.2) (1.8) (1.3) (-2.3)
Cowboys       -2.6 (5.1) (3.5) (0.3) (5.4)
Panthers        -3.2 (0.0) (-0.9) (-0.1) (2.9)
Vikings         -3.3 (9.5) (2.6) (8.1) (4.8)
Giants           -3.5 (6.3) (0.0) (-0.1) (1.4)
Packers         -4.9 (7.3) (-1.1) (2.1) (7.6)
Saints            -4.9 (3.80 (-0.6) (3.0) (-1.1)
Patriots          -4.9 (-.3) (1.2) (5.8) (-2.2)